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Peso stumbles as dollar rallies

By Doris Dumlao
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 03:58:00 08/16/2008

Filed Under: Foreign Exchange Markets

MANILA, Philippines—The peso Friday dropped below the 45-per-dollar mark as the rebounding US dollar trampled on the currencies of emerging Asian nations in light of sliding of crude oil prices.

The peso breached 45 to the dollar upon opening of trading and reached a low of 45.34 during trading, before closing at 45.31, down 0.33 from Thursday’s finish.

Traders said the peso would have fallen further had not the central bank sold dollars in late afternoon trading.

The peso traded at its lowest since mid-July, when it was bolstered by a hefty half-percentage point increase in the central bank’s interest rate and a retreat in crude oil prices from the all-time high of $147 per barrel.

The volume of trading on the currency spot market surged to $1.12 billion Friday from $778.4 million Thursday, as some corporations stocked up on dollars to hedge against uncertainties over an extended weekend. Monday will be a non-working holiday, as President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has moved this year’s commemoration of the death of Benigno Aquino Jr. from Thursday next week.

Some traders estimated the central bank’s dollar sales at $300 million in late trading to temper the peso’s fall.

The third quarter of the year is a usually a strong season for importation, as traders build up inventory ahead of the Christmas holidays.

“The US dollar kept on appreciating even as oil and gold prices corrected (downwards), on expectations that major economies will have to cut interest rates to boost growth,” said Marcelo Ayes, senior vice president at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp.

Ayes said the next barrier to the US dollar’s rise would be P45.50-P45.60 to the dollar, with the central bank expected to support the peso at around 45 to the greenback.

Philippine National Bank treasurer Ramon Lim said results of recent trading pointed to the start of a new cycle for the dollar against major global currencies following its seven years in the doldrums.

He said a crucial barrier for the peso breached at 45.20 to the dollar, the market could test 46.00 as early as next week.

The peso has now lost about 4.00, or 8.9 percent, against the dollar since the start of the year, making it one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies alongside the South Korean won and the Indian rupee.

Last year, the peso rallied by nearly 19 percent against the dollar and became the region’s strongest currency.

For purposes of budgeting and economic planning, the government has projected the peso’s exchange rate at 42-45 to the dollar this year through to next year.

Surging oil prices were the peso’s main scourge since March, when it started the currency slid from an eight-year high of 40.25 to the dollar recorded at the end of February. Now, the US dollar’s bottoming out has become the major dampening factor for the peso.

In July, the peso regained some ground after the central bank shifted to more aggressive monetary-tightening measures to curb surging consumer prices and mounting expectations of inflation.

The peso’s fall came amid a slump of other Asian currencies Friday. The Singapore dollar fell to a half-year low and the Malaysian ringgit hit an eight-month low on jitters over the weakening global economy, regional reports said. Edited by INQUIRER.net



Copyright 2009 Philippine Daily Inquirer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.


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