While the Philippines will not be spared the effects of a global economic slowdown, the economy supported by OFW remittances, stronger government financial position and a robust banking system will allow it to soft land.
This was one of the main themes discussed in Building Wealth Beyond the Crisis, an investor briefing organized last Nov. 18 by CitisecOnline (COL), the country's leading online stockbrokerage firm. Its main guest was Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) deputy governor Diwa Guinigundo.
Guinigundo discussed extensively the role of the BSP in managing the current risks involved in the financial crisis, its plan of action on the concerns in the Philippine economy and the role of interest rates regulation at a period of economic turmoil. Recently various central banks around the world, as part of their strategy to prevent economic contraction in their countries, reduced benchmark interest rates. This has not been necessary in the Philippines, he said.
On the stock market front, COL research head April Tan observed that listed companies are now irrationally cheap as they have become victims of indiscriminate selling despite them being fundamentally sound. “We do not think all of these battered issues deserve to trade at their current price. Some companies possess very strong balance sheets with minimal debt. Some are engaged in businesses that generate recurring profits (ex. rentals, power generation). Although profits will most likely be negatively affected by the prevailing economic slowdown, we think they possess qualities that will allow them to survive the crisis.” Tan said.
But despite these parameters, COL Chief Technical Analyst Juanis Barredo stressed it will take some time before the stock market to recover. "While the threat of inflation is now gone with prices going down, the process of recovery will take a while. Nevertheless, only gradual accumulation of shares in this bearish phase will eventually prove to be a lucrative investment." said Barredo.
Meanwhile, COL officials urged investors to avail of this rare opportunity offered by the stock market today. Tan pointed out that only in a few instances in the past 13 years have share prices been cheaper than their current values. COL president Dino Bate observed that many shares are priced today at only a fraction of their real worth. "Some are actually priced at only 30 per cent of what their owners paid for them. Now is the time to buy stocks for the long-term."
Despite the drops in the markets, CitisecOnline has managed to increase its customer base and posted a 19 percent rise in new accounts in the first nine months of the year. Bate attributed the customer base increase to COL's ongoing investor education seminars and its new COL-Easy Investment Program or COL-EIP. The COL-EIP is a wealth building facility for self-directed investors who may not have the time or experience in investing in the stock market but would wish to take advantage of the superior growth opportunities offered by the bourse.
Bate recommended that investors change their investment approach and seek out shares that offer value and stable earnings rather than high growth. COL recommends stocks that match the following criteria: must be in growing industries, must exhibit earning predictability, a good management track record, superior and ethical management and a strong balance sheet. According to COL's website, the following meet these requirements: Manila Water, Jollibee, SM Prime, Ayala Land, BPI and PLDT.