EVs still tread rough patch as issues hamper acceptance
In the Philippines, the prospects of electric vehicles (EVs) looked good last May when the newly formed Electric Vehicles Association of the Philippines (EVAP) claimed that e-jeepneys ply the roads in Makati, Pasig, Quezon City, Los Baños, Iloilo, Cebu and other urban centers. EVAP also said that electric tricyles (e-trikes) were previously used in Mandaluyong, Taguig, Puerto Princesa, Boracay and Surigao, some in coordination with government agencies. (But whether e-trikes still operate in these places wasn’t mentioned.) Within the Meralco compound, e-shuttles and electric quadricycles (e-quads) are used by employees, visitors and customers, according to EVAP.
However, these locally made commuter EVs can only cover short trips after being fully recharged. No fully electric, plug-in passenger cars are sold in this country. Their limited driving range is the biggest problem facing EVs worldwide aside from the lofty-prices and heavy weight of the lithium-ion batteries they use.
Once considered the future of the automotive industry, EVs are treading a rough patch of road as technological failures, safety issues and high costs hamper consumer acceptance. In the United States, General Motors has temporarily idled production of the $41,000 plug-in electric Chevrolet Volt due to slow sales while Nissan’s all-electric Leaf is struggling in the market.
Despite the hyped projection of EVs as the answer to global warming, volatile petroleum prices and dependence on foreign imported fossil fuels, and the billions of dollars spent by the Obama administration in tax credits to EV buyers and grants to EV and battery manufacturers and research institutions, the electric car situation looks dismal in the United States as elsewhere. Some start-up EV and battery companies have closed shop.
Fire. Electric car sales were not helped any earlier this year when one Chevrolet Volt caught fire and the battery packs in three others ignited weeks after a crash test. The chair of GM had to defend the Volt at a congressional investigation in Washington and promised to modify and strengthen the EV. Federal officials eventually cleared the Volt of any safety risk.
Critics say that EVs are too expensive, take too long to recharge and don’t provide enough driving range to be practical for most consumers and to sell in the mass market. The $33,000 Nissan Leaf takes eight hours to charge with a 240-volt charger that costs $2,200 to install, after which it can drive about 160 kilometers. But its driving range may be shorter depending on air temperature, speed and other factors.
Nissan Motor Co. of Japan CEO Carlos Ghosn, who is concurrently president of France’s Renault S.A., predicted several years ago that all-electric models would make up 10 percent of all vehicles globally by 2020. But last year, out of total light vehicle sales of 12.5 million in the United States, fewer than 20,000 were plug-in EVs. The skepticism of some Ford Motor Co., Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Co. executives about Ghosn’s optimistic forecast for EVs appears to hold ground.
Hybrids. In contrast, the market for hybrids that do not require external charging, like the Toyota Prius, is growing. In the United States, where the government’s proposed new fuel economy standard of 4.7 liters per 100 kilometers will take effect in 2025, hybrids are seen to corner 6 percent of the market by 2013 and 25 percent by 2025 because they are on track to meet the new fuel economy standard. Obama’s goal is to have one million plug-in hybrids or all-electric cars on US roads by 2015.
In the Philippines, Toyota sells the Prius while Toyota’s premium car division, Lexus, sells hybrid versions of bestselling models like the Lexus RX 350 SUV. Toyota Motor Philippines has reportedly lowered the retail price of the Prius to spur market demand.
On the other hand, the limited range of battery-powered vehicles is not a problem for commercial delivery fleet operators because delivery trucks generally drive short, defined routes each day. Two years ago, Staples Inc., the Frito-Lay division of Pepsi Co., FedEx Corp. and AT&T Inc. ordered 41 trucks from Smith Electric Vehicles of Kansas City. Although the trucks cost about $30,000 more than a diesel, Staples expects to cover that expense in 3.3 years because of the savings in fuel and maintenance costs of e-trucks.
E-trucks. Because e-trucks use “regenerative” braking, which returns some of the force of stopping to the batteries in the form of electricity, the brakes don’t wear out as fast and last four or five years, not one or two, before they need a $3,300 repair. Other cost savings of an e-truck are that they need no oil, transmission fluid, filters and belts, so its annual maintenance cost is only about $250 compared to the average $2,700 of a diesel delivery truck.
Going back to e-cars, some auto industry pundits predict that EVs will be an alternative for consumers who own one or more other gasoline-fueled cars that they can depend on in an emergency when the EV’s battery has run out of juice. An EV makes sense for consumers who drive frequently, but on short trips. EVs will survive if battery technology is developed further, costs are reduced and government subsidies and large consumer rebates continue. EVs as a rational purchase will take more time as many consumers are unwilling to pay extra for new technology.
At the Geneva auto show last March, there was less bluster about EVs than in 2011 and the spotlight was back on more traditional engines but with a big emphasis on emissions and fuel efficiency. As Reuters news analyst John Broder asks rhetorically: “Are the Teslas and Fiskers and ActiveEs and Volts and Leafs destined to be merely the playthings of rich technophiles with a couple of spare gasoline-powered cars?”
Only time will tell.
(Sources: The WSJ, IHT and Philippine Daily Inquirer)
