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Philippine peso expected to depreciate to 45 to a dollar by yearend

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The peso may not always maintain a strong stance, as seen in recent weeks, and is expected to depreciate in the coming months, eventually trading at 45 against the US dollar by yearend, according to analysts.

Based on the latest projections of DBS Group and the partnership of First Metro Investment Corp. and the University of Asia and the Pacific, the peso is expected to return to the range of 43 against the greenback mainly due to domestic development problems, as well as lingering uncertainties abroad.

DBS revised its forecast for the peso, which it said would average at 45:$1 in the fourth quarter this year from the previous 42.50:$1.

The financial service provider based in Singapore also said that the local currency would further weaken in the third quarter when it would average at 45.50 against the dollar.

“The peso’s stability is dependent on pushing more reforms to sustain growth (even if) it has been stable since early 2011,” DBS said, expecting the exchange rate to fluctuate within the 42-44 range.

“The peso’s resilience throughout the eurozone debt crisis was mainly due to the re-acceleration in real GDP growth to 6.4 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2012,” from less than 5 percent of the previous year, the group added.

But despite these positive developments, the Philippines still needs “to address several structural challenges,” particularly because growth is still too dependent on government spending, DBS said.

At the same time, FMIC and UA&P expect the local currency to weaken to an average of 43.27 in June, 43.453 in July and 43.34 in August, from the current 43:$1.

“With deep uncertainties as to the impact of Greece exiting from, or remaining in the eurozone, the dollar will remain as a major safe haven,” FMIC and UA&P said. “The peso will not be spared from this, and so the exchange rate should [depreciate] until the third quarter.”

Last week, FMIC president Roberto Juanchito Dispo was quoted as saying that the peso could hit an average of 42 against the dollar this year because the recent drop in global oil prices would reduce the country’s demand for dollars.


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Tags: currency , forecasts , Peso , Philippines

  • Diablo_III

    This is good for OFW’s but I doubt it. Maybe it will be between 43 and 43.50.

  • http://www.facebook.com/samboym Samboy Manalo

    Hindi naman ganun kabilis magmura ang mga bilihin natin kapag bumababa ang dollar. Hindi lang naman sila ang ating kinukuhanan ng mga Imported products. Be Optimistic lang naman kahit ako nga na umaasa din sa dollars mas gusto ko pa na bumaba na lang , may benefits din naman yan satin.

  • robrano

    What depreciation? As long as the peso is not down to at least 55 to the dollar, it is still very overvalued compared to its local purchase power. And with a much lower value, nearer to reality, investors and tourist would flock in. Look at tourist, Versailles Castle in France (10 million visitors) and other single places attract much more tourist per year than the whole
    Philippines. And small Singapore also has much more visitors as RP. Even its currency costs more than the peso, its purchase power is so much higher that at the end Singapore is cheaper than RP.
    But of course, powerful RP people and the government wants the peso high for to get the remittances cheaper and to buy dollers cheap. RP is the only country where economy is “boosted” by pushing up its currency, all other do it rather by depreciation. Here, the economy is “good” when there are more billionaires, not when the common people can live better.
    Look at the “most gaining” new RP billionaire (in dollars), he owns a part of the National power grid for which we pay at every power bill “for transmission” after it was privatized. Just for his part he earned last year 900 million dollar (40 billion pesos. And it is going up, my power bill has just increased more than 1500 pesos for the same kilowatt.
    Really a straight path, pro poor of course.

    • http://www.facebook.com/olivermia Oliver Mia

      lol. tourism largely depends on exchange rate? kung sasagot ka, please.. ‘wag english. but if you’re not a Filipino, then I would understand and would say my sorry in advance.

      RP is the only country where economy is “boosted” by pushing up its currency, all other do it rather by depreciation.

      really? BPO and OFW has nothing to do with our growth??? lol. and what about the informal economy? the sari-sari store, the jeepney drivers, the balut vendors? all of them are nothing cause we only rely on our currency’s value?

      and what can you say about the thai baht? my ringgit? ind rupiah? and other emerging market’s currencies? they are all have risen against the dollar in the past few years.

  • Pitbulldog

    When the dollar was at 48, the prices of basic commodities were much lower than they are today when it is almost touching 41+ to a dollar. So what is here to celebrate and claim that the Philippines economy is growing? BS. Dapat lang itaas nyo na yan. Wala rin naman kwenta kahit bumaba pa yan. Only the greedy businessmen benefit from it.

    • http://www.facebook.com/olivermia Oliver Mia

      alam mo yung inflation? kelan pa ba yang 48 to a dollar na yan? malamang bawas na purchasing power ng peso dahil sa inflation dahil ilang taon ng nakalipas yang sinasabi mo. kapag nag more than 48 to a dollar at hindi gumanda ang sitwasyon ng presyo ng langis sa world mrket, wag kang aangal dahil lampas P60 na ang isang litro ng gasolina.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004040736616 Mario Salazar

    Do not believe these “self appointed expert” that our peso will devalue. The BSP has lost 37 billion dollars defending our peso against outside interference. This is quite a big amount. Why in the first place should our government engage on money market? That is not their function. Now, that 37 billon dollars could have brought a long way to help our marginalize poor especially the informal settlers if only our government uses their coconuts. What they should have done is let the peso seek it’s true value.
    Kawawa palagi ang taong bayan sa mga kapalpakan nitong nasa gobyerno. It is we, the ordinary people who gets the brunt of their mistakes. Look what happen to the “Ongpin” scum in which he borrowed millions of dollars from our BSP, bought the Philex mining share of the BSP and then sold it to Pangilinan at triple the value. BSP could have earned billions of pesos more if they were the ones who sold direct to Pangilinan. Same thing happened to the Philex mining share of SSS. Ongpin bought it at a low price then subsiquently sold it to Pangiinan at a very high price. Ongpin is quilty of inside trading. Guess what, the Senate and the OMbudsman is foot dragging the case. By the time this case is resolve, Ongpin will have diverted the billi0ns of money, our government could no longer reclaim it.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004040736616 Mario Salazar

    Do not believe these “self appointed expert” that our peso will devalue. The BSP has lost 37 billion dollars defending our peso against outside interference. This is quite a big amount. Why in the first place should our government engage on money market? That is not their function. Now, that 37 billon dollars could have brought a long way to help our marginalize poor especially the informal settlers if only our government uses their coconuts. What they should have done is let the peso seek it’s true value.

    Kawawa palagi ang taong bayan sa mga kapalpakan nitong nasa gobyerno. It is we, the ordinary people who gets the brunt of their mistakes. Look what happen to the “Ongpin” scum in which he borrowed millions of dollars from our BSP, bought the Philex mining share of the BSP and then sold it to Pangilinan at triple the value. BSP could have earned billions of pesos more if they were the ones who sold direct to Pangilinan. Same thing happened to the Philex mining share of SSS. Ongpin bought it at a low price then subsiquently sold it to Pangiinan at a very high price. Ongpin is quilty of inside trading. Guess what, the Senate and the OMbudsman is foot dragging the case. By the time this case is resolve, Ongpin will have diverted the billi0ns of money, our government could no longer reclaim it.

    • http://www.facebook.com/olivermia Oliver Mia

      correction chief. “protected” ng batas ang paggamit ng international reserves sa edukasyon, kalusugan, etc. limitado lang ang paggamit ng pondong pinagkunang ng pera sa pagdedefend ng peso.

  • http://www.facebook.com/edgardo.urcia Edgardo Urcia

    the pesos will appreciate to P40.50 at the end of the year, watch out for the big leap of our economy, watch out.

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100004040736616 Mario Salazar

      That should be the case. We should be optimistic about our economy than listening to the “self appointed experts.” They nothing. No one can even predict where things will be in the future. They can not even support their allegations, just merely an empty rhetoric. Period.

  • http://www.facebook.com/tsupa.uten Tsupa Uten

    Yes yes yes, drop some more to 57.

    • malayangpinoy

      buti sana pag tumaas ang value ng peso kong bumababa ang bilihin sa bansa

      • Chris Nadal

        everyone is just looking at the peso.. try looking at world oil prices too — the biggest factor behind PH inflation .. even if the peso shoots up at 40 but oil is climbing more than $100 per barrel, don’t expect any cut in the prices of goods. But at least, inflation is still at low digits because of the strong peso.

    • malayangpinoy

      make it 60 a dollar para naman malaki ang kita ng ofw,di naman bumababa
      ang presyo satin kahit na mataas ang value ng peso kaya ok lang mababa
      hehehe

    • http://www.facebook.com/olivermia Oliver Mia

      wag kayong magrereklamo kapag 70 pesos na kada litro ang gasolina. tarages!

    • http://www.facebook.com/olivermia Oliver Mia

      ‘wag kayong magrereklamo kapag P70 na kada litro ang gasolina.

  • http://twitter.com/jose_guev jose guev

    every year naman iyan sinasabi, kesyo hindi stable ang philippine economy… but world experts are all in agreement that this is really a good time in the philippines economically

    • mike webber

      Haha…remember when all the “experts” were expecting a 3%-4% Q1 growth for the Philippines in 2012? Well the Filipinos just slammed a 6.4% record on their faces



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