La Niña to develop this year? Forecaster not entirely sure
IT’S STILL not clear whether the La Niña phenomenon, which brings higher-than-average rainfall in the Philippines, would develop later this year.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), in its latest forecast update, said the likelihood that La Niña would form in the coming months was “around 50 percent.”
“In the tropical Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures have continued to cool in recent weeks. With all ocean and atmospheric indicators near normal, the tropical Pacific Ocean is in a neutral … state,” the BoM said.
Neutral means there is no La Niña nor its temperamental brother, El Niño, waiting to wreak havoc. The latter means massive droughts or lower-than-average rainfall.
“However, a large volume of cooler than normal water below the ocean surface suggests La Niña remains possible in 2016,” the Australian agency said.
Recent observations, combined with current climate model outlooks, have left the bureau’s outlook unchanged at La Niña Watch, referring to an alert on the possibility of a La Niña occurrence.
“If La Niña does develop, climate models suggest it is unlikely to reach levels seen in the most recent event of 2010-2012—one of the strongest La Niña events on record,” the agency said.
Based on coastal geohazard assessments, the Philippines’ Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) warned northern towns of Leyte were likely to be affected by landslides while eastern towns were highly prone to coastal erosion.
The MGB’s marine geological survey division said in a statement marine erosion was a threat to towns on the island’s eastern seaboard like Palo, Tolosa, Tanauan, Dulag, Mayorga, MacArthur and Abuyo.
“The result of this activity (geohazard survey) helps coastal communities prepare for the effects of changing storm regimes driven by strong effects of climate oscillations like El Niño and La Niña,” the MGB said.
“Information derived from this study is especially important in light of potential future climate changes associated with sea level rise to reduce, if not totally inhibit, the destructive effects and impacts of the natural hazards on the coastal population,” the agency said.
The MGB added future impacts associated with storms, tectonic movement and sea level rise amplified Leyte’s vulnerability to coastal hazards.
