Intense El Niño to prevail until early ’16, say experts
Persistent signs of rising temperatures are fueling speculations that the prevailing El Niño phenomenon could turn out to be the most intense recorded in history.
United States climate experts believe that it could last up to early 2016.
In its latest monthly update, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said sea surface temperatures observed in July were 1 degree Celsius above the average in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The US NOAA also noted the behavior of the trade winds was consistent with the occurrence of El Niño.
“Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño,” the agency said.
The US NOAA said all climate prediction models indicate a strong El Niño event that would peak in the latter part of 2015.
“At this time, the forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño,” the agency said.
“Overall, there is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-2016, and around an 85 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016,” it added.
Earlier this month, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said the El Niño phenomenon was expected in the next few weeks to surpass temperatures observed in the past decade.
“The 2015 El Niño is now well-established and continues to strengthen,” the BoM said in its latest update issued on Aug. 4.
“In the coming weeks, the central tropical Pacific Ocean may exceed the peak [temperatures] reached during the 2002 and 2009 [occurrences], but current anomalies remain well short of the 1982 and 1997 peaks,” the Australian agency added.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), monitoring as of July 26 placed six provinces in a state of drought—Bohol, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Quezon, Romblon, and Siquijor.
Nine provinces were also under a dry spell, including Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Laguna, Marinduque, Nueva Vizcaya, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, and Quirino.
In an earlier report, the Food and Agriculture Organization observed that several countries in Asia, including the Philippines, experienced well below-average precipitation, which has led to severe shortage of soil moisture in some areas.
“In the Philippines, planting of the wet season crop continues and there is some concern over dry conditions,” the FAO-administered Agricultural Market Information System (Amis) said.
