GDP growth in 4th quarter seen at 6%

Hundreds of participants, some wearing Santa hats, join the 10-Kilometer fun run to raise funds for the survivors of Supertyphoon “Yolanda” on Dec. 14, 2013, at Pasay City. The economic slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2013 resulting from Yolanda could be less severe than initially anticipated, with growth during the period now seen to hit at least 6 percent. AP PHOTO/BULLIT MARQUEZ

The economic slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2013 resulting from Supertyphoon “Yolanda” could be less severe than initially anticipated, with growth during the period now seen to hit at least 6 percent.

Emmanuel Esguerra, deputy director general at the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda), said that based on their latest assessment, the earlier growth estimate for the fourth quarter, set at a range of 4.1 to 5.9 percent, might already be too conservative.

Esguerra cited latest growth of the manufacturing sector that exceeded earlier projections.

“Based on latest statistics for the manufacturing sector, growth in the fourth quarter [of 2013] actually could be stronger than the earlier estimate,” Esguerra told the Inquirer.

Actual economic growth figures for the fourth quarter of 2013 and for the full year are scheduled to be released on Jan. 30.

The National Statistics Office reported last week that year-on-year growth in the manufacturing sector’s volume of production accelerated to 21.3 percent in November. This was the fastest pace seen since September 2010.

Average growth in the sector’s production from January to November hit 13.1 percent, faster than the 7.5 percent recorded in the same period of 2012.

Manufacturing growth drivers were chemical products, furniture and fixtures, non-electrical machinery, tobacco products, leather products, basic metals, rubber and plastic products, and beverages.

The Neda earlier expected Yolanda, which devastated central, eastern and western Visayas, to have pulled down growth of the overall economy to a low 4.1 percent due to the severe damage to public infrastructure, agriculture and private property.

The resulting disruption in business activities was also expected to cause a spike in the unemployment rate.

Esguerra, however, said the positive performance of the manufacturing sector could have eased the adverse economic impact of the natural calamity.

According to a post-calamity assessment report released by the Neda, Yolanda caused P571 billion in economic losses. The figure included the value of destroyed property as well as income losses due to the disruption of business operations.

The government’s recovery plan would require a funding of P360.8 billion, according to the Neda. This will include the cost of reconstruction of public infrastructure and government facilities, the establishment of temporary shelter, assistance to affected farmers and fishermen, and the temporary employment of some affected individuals in reconstruction activities.

In the first three quarters of 2013, prior to the devastation by Yolanda, the Philippine economy grew by an average 7.4 percent, the fastest in the region for the period.