Citi sees 6.5% GDP growth for 2nd quarter
Philippine economic growth likely eased to 6.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter partly due to a lower contribution from external trade, American banking giant Citigroup said.
In a commentary dated Aug. 23, Citi economist for the Philippines Jun Trinidad tempered the outlook for second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth versus the bank’s earlier 6.8-percent forecast and the 7.8-percent expansion earlier reported for the first quarter.
The country’s second-quarter report card is set to be released on Thursday. The market consensus points to a growth of 7.3 percent.
Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted growth in the second quarter was likewise estimated to have eased to 0.6 percent from 2.2 percent in the first quarter. Trinidad said the slower forecast would be due to lackluster trade contribution and the start of financial market volatility due to quantitative easing (QE) tapering risk, referring to the phaseout of the US Federal Reserve’s liquidity-inducing $85-billion monthly asset buying.
“We revised our earlier second-quarter GDP growth estimate of 6.8 percent year-on-year to 6.5 percent year-on-year recognizing that the net export contribution may have been less at 1.9 percent of real GDP compared to the previous estimate of 2.2 percent,” Trinidad said.
The economist said that with the Bureau of Customs’ trade data in the second quarter providing clues on exports (which fell 2.7 percent year-on-year) and imports (up 0.6 percent year-on-year), Citi revised lower its second-quarter export and import forecasts for GDP that resulted in a lower net export contribution during the period.
Disclaimer: The comments uploaded on this site do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of management and owner of INQUIRER.net. We reserve the right to exclude comments that we deem to be inconsistent with our editorial standards.
To subscribe to the Philippine Daily Inquirer newspaper in the Philippines, call +63 2 896-6000 for Metro Manila and Metro Cebu or email your subscription request here.
Factual errors? Contact the Philippine Daily Inquirer's day desk. Believe this article violates journalistic ethics? Contact the Inquirer's Reader's Advocate. Or write The Readers' Advocate:
c/o Philippine Daily Inquirer Chino Roces Avenue corner Yague and Mascardo Streets, Makati City,Metro Manila, Philippines Or fax nos. +63 2 8974793 to 94