US economist hails PH success story

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Visiting American economist Nouriel Roubini hailed the Philippines as an “economic success,” citing the country’s potential to move toward a higher growth rate of at least 7 percent a year.

 

But Roubini said more structural reforms were needed to ensure “sustainable” and “cohesive” growth beyond President Aquino’s term in 2016.

 

In an investment forum organized by First Metro Investment Corp., Roubini was mostly upbeat on the Philippines, which he believed deserved a sovereign investment-grade rating for its fiscal reforms.

 

“There’s renewed interest among investors, recognizing changes in the policy of the country such as in fiscal policy,” said the economist, who shot to fame as the “prophet of doom” who predicted the collapse of the US housing market that led to a global economic crunch in 2008-2009.

 

Roubini said the success story of the Philippines was a result of a sophisticated private sector, and strong governance and reform policies.

 

Anemic global recovery

 

His favorable view on the Philippines came amid an anemic global economic recovery. He predicted a global growth of only 3 percent, more cautious than the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of 3.5 percent.

 

Roubini noted that the US political system was dysfunctional and that this political gridlock would likely be a continuing source of noise for the economy.

 

While risks of a euro zone breakup had been averted, he said there were remaining risks on peripheral countries and in the case of China, risks of hard landing could not be ruled out for next year.

 

Rich human capital

 

As for the Philippines, he said the country had the potential to achieve a higher growth rate given its rich human capital—a large pool of young, literate and English-speaking citizenry from which the country could derive dividends.

 

Roubini cited the significant amount of remittances from overseas workers, the rising middle class and consumer-oriented society.

 

He also noted the country’s rich natural resources, which could help boost the agriculture sector and build a manufacturing base, and ongoing diversification in economic activity.

 

Outsourcing, tourism

 

While outsourcing accounted for large part of the economy, tourism can play a bigger role, he said.

 

The American economist said mining could be a more significant contributor to the local economy and a magnet for investments if more projects were allowed while being mindful of environmental issues.

 

Roubini recognized the country’s “sound” monetary policy and commitment to inflation—targeting, saying that inflation could stay at 3 percent or below this year, aided by a strong peso.

 

Strong democracy

 

Also working in the country’s favor was a strong democracy, a much-improved governance framework and a popular leader, Roubini said.

 

On the other hand, Roubini enumerated a number of constraints to growth in the Philippines, including the potential impact of rapid peso appreciation on the competitiveness of exporters and the business process outsourcing.

 

Another challenge was a prolonged period of low interest rates that could lead to an asset bubble, although he said this was not a concern for now.

 

Another key challenge was the need to reduce reliance on consumption and deepen capital formation, the opposite of the needed economic restructuring in China, Roubini said.

 

After 2016, what?

 

He also acknowledged the need to increase the government’s tax take, improve the modest flow of foreign direct investment, improve per capita income, address pervasive rural poverty and be better prepared for natural disasters.

 

Further institution-building is also deemed necessary. “The fight against corruption has been successful but much more needs to be done,” Roubini said, citing “oligopoly” in some sectors.

 

Greater openness to foreign investment, he said, was one structural reform critical to preventing the concentration of economic power.

 

“Question is what will happen after 2016. People are going to be asking, ‘Is it just that?” Roubini said.

 

But the economist said there was a good chance that in 2016, Filipinos would vote for leaders who have the same reform agenda as that of the current administration given the gains being reaped currently.

 

Nonetheless, he said the country must assure potential investors of the sustainability of the ongoing reforms.

 

Infrastructure

 

Roubini said the Philippines would have to invest more in infrastructure and human capital to attract more investments. He said public spending on healthcare and education should increase to enhance human capital.

 

But he said that the challenges were already being addressed by the government, and this should eventually convince credit rating firms and the international investment community that the positive momentum would be sustained.

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  • webspiker

    Stop glorifying Gloria MACAPAL-Arroyo. During her decade-long grab of power she was not able to lift the country economically. Look at Vietnam, this backward country overpowered/outrun the Philippines economically during LOLA Gloria’s term. Global companies invested in Vietnam but the Philippines was left eating dust behind.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_QSBNZB3TEKHJE5A74STZTTUHC4 ed0408

    We are doing well under Pnoy. FDI is not a good gauge that will make a country prosperous. You can have all the FDI in the world today and gone tomorrow. Even China is trying hard to have a consumer oriented economy than driven by export oriented economy. China is affected by U.S. and Europe economic problem. Whereas, we are almost insulated with it. So, it is a blessing. 

  • lemon88

    A BIG QUESTION IS HANGING. AFTER 2016 WHAT?  SIMPLE ANG SAGOT DYAN. “HWAG IBOTO C BINAY; ESTRADA MGA ENRILE’S MAR ROXAS’ ZUBIRI LACSON; HONASAN AT IBA PANG TRAPO NA MATAGAL  NG NAKALUKLOK PERO WALANG GINAGAWA KUNDI MAGPAYAMAN AT MAGPUPUTAK.

    • Don Dee

      I feel you bro. We need continuity of good governance or else back to zero na naman tayo. Wag na siguro si Binay … at sige wag na rin si Mar (he is jockeying for the presidency too early which makes me suspicious/nervous). I am not saying it should be Gordon, or Bayani Fernando, but somebody in their mold. Yun bang take action wala masyadong palamuting salita. And please be done with Gloria Arroyo. She accuses PNoy of having an ax to grind, let’s see how a normal no ax to grind, but sane president will handle her. And hopefully after 2016, her fans will stop giving her credit for her good economic policies, lol!

  • Your_King

    Everything that economist said is basically everything the GMA did. She invested in BPO-IT and infra and put in the VAT. Which is exactly why even with the global economy collapse in 2008-09 that the PH was able to essentially make it out unscathed. There is a thing called benefiting and experiencing the fruits of one’s labor…this is a perfect example of that…Aquino is experiencing the fruits of GMA’s labor.

    • Don Dee

      BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA! From her confines at the Veteran’s Smeagol still gets credit! Lol! You are hopeless.

    • webspiker

      Stop glorifying Gloria MACAPAL-Arroyo. During her decade-long rein she was not able to lift the country economically. Look at Vietnam, this backward country overpowered/outrun the Philippines economically during LOLA Gloria’s term. Global companies invested in Vietnam but the Philippines was left eating dust behind.

  • PIPOL_rd

    NAPAKAGANDA NG GINAGAWA NI PNOY,MABUHAY PO KAYO SIR..KAYA SA MGA KABABAYAN NATIN KAILANGAN PO NATIN TULUNGAN ANG ATING BANSA,DUN PO TAYO TUMULONG SA LIDER NA WALA INIISIP KUNDI KABUTIHAN NG BANSA

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_E3CE56OQVPC4RPYD2NR4VD3SUE Bert

      I will only believe na walang ibang iniisip si Pnoy kundi kabutihan ng bansa if Pnoy is able to pass the FOI and the ANTI-POLITICAL DYNASTY BILLS….

  • makatotohanan

    This will be only true if the unemplyment rate down to 5% and less….available jobs to everyone!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_E3CE56OQVPC4RPYD2NR4VD3SUE Bert

    Good spin, but still a spin….

    With the May Election fast approaching, expect more MALACANANG SPIN to come, such as this one, courtesy of the yellow media….

  • parefrank

    to IbigMongSabihin

    No , nothing wrong to be proud. But it should at least be true,.You cannot tell all the year over  that economy has some problems because the gov. has to curb spending to limit the budget deficit and at the end of the year, near election, you tell that there was a gigantic pump prime spending and a big growth. Some of this must be plain lies. And praising a growth by comparing with a poor previous year is also nonsense since it is merely just coming back to normal.That 2013 a lot of money will be pumped into economy has also nothing to do with good governing, only with the election. Even comparing it with previous administrations is also stupid. How would, f.i.,  Marcos have spent such amounts when his budgets during 20 years together  hardly reached what Aquino now has in one year? No other president was just thinking about such gigantic amount and no poitician of  such big income and no gov. employee of such “cash gifts” for nothing than doing the anyway good paid job. While millions of hard working people have less yearly income than others get gifts and bonuses. And Juan de la Cruz is then told “this is the straight path to pro poor policy”. What a shame.

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