Arroyo has best growth in full term; Aquino tops 1st year growth among presidents – NSCB


Former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo

MANILA, Philippines — Among the Philippine leaders from 1986 to present, President Benigno Aquino III posted the fastest growth in his first year in office while President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo posted the best average economic performance among those who completed their respective terms,  the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB).

In a report published Monday, the NSCB noted that such observations were based on gross domestic product (GDP) growth, influenced by external factors such as regional and global financial crises as well as the political climate at the time of each presidency. As such, the NSCB said, GDP growth could not be fully attributed to a certain president or his/her economic team.

The term of President Joseph “Erap” Ejercito Estrada was short-lived and Aquino is only in his tenth quarter of service. “If we focus on the three Presidents that completed their terms of office, (President Cory Aquino, President Fidel “FVR” V. Ramos, and Arroyo) we would observe that the domestic economy performed best during the time of President [Arroyo],” NSCB secretary-general Jose Ramon G. Albert said.

During her term, Albert said, the GDP average annualized growth rate hit 4.1 percent, mainly driven by the services sector.

The NSCB data showed that the highest GDP annual growth rate in Arroyo’s term was recorded in 2004 with 6.7 percent while the lowest was posted in

2009 with 1.1 percent. Services had an average growth of 4.9 percent.

The services sector hit a high of 8.3 percent in 2004 while the lowest was only 3.4 percent registered in 2009. Industry contributed an average growth of 3.3 percent. The highest growth rate for industry was posted in 2007 with 5.8 percent and the lowest was a contraction by 1.9 percent registered in 2009. Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing (AHFF) posted an average growth of 2.8 percent. The highest growth rate for the sector was 4.7 percent posted in 2007 while the lowest was a contraction by 0.7 percent in 2009.

On the other hand, during President Cory Aquino’s term, the economy averaged only 2.8 percent with the services sector contributing an average growth of 3.5 percent; industry, 2.6 percent; and AHFF, 1.5 percent.  It should be noted, however, that she led amid the volatile, post-Martial Law political environment. The highest GDP growth rate during Cory’s time was recorded in 1988 at 6.8 percent while the lowest was negative 0.6 posted in 1991. The highest growth rate recorded by the services sectors was 6.9 percent in 1988 while the lowest was 0.2 percent in 1991. Industry’s peak was in 1988 at 8.4 percent while the ebb was negative 2.6 percent. AHFF, on the other hand, had a recorded high of only 3.7 percent in 1986 and the lowest at 0.2 percent in 1990.

To include Estrada and Aquino, NSCB said, it might be interesting to look at the performance of the economy in the first eight quarters of service of each president of the Fifth Republic. That is, to see who of them is “the fairest of them all,” Albert said.

Among the Philippine presidents from 1986 to present, Aquino got the highest GDP growth rate in his first year of presidency with 5.4 percent while Estrada got the lowest with 0.1 percent, Albert said. It should be noted, however, that Estrada’s first year as president was in the aftermath of the effects of the Asian Financial Crisis.

Aquino also got the highest GDP growth rate in his second year of service with 4.9 percent, while Ramos got the lowest with 3.4 percent (Ramos had to deal with a power crisis during that time).

“With regard to our two lady presidents who were catapulted to power via popular uprisings, the domestic economy of Cory and Arroyo both accelerated in their second year with 4.3 percent from 3.4 percent and 3.6 percent from 2.9 percent, respectively,” Albert said.

Comparing specific major sectors of the economy, Albert observed that Aquino got the highest growth rates for the services sector in his first year with 5.8 percent and accelerated to 6.7 percent in his second year. Cory followed with 4.2 percent and 5.1 percent in her first and second year, respectively. Ramos got the lowest with 1.6 percent in his first year and 3.4 percent in his second year, respectively.

Aquino topped the industry sector in his first year of service with 5.3 percent while Estrada’s industry growth rate contracted by 4.5 percent. In the second year, Ramos was at the top with 4.3 percent while Arroyo was the tail ender with 2.9 percent.

Aquino got the highest growth rate for AHFF in his first year with 3.7 percent while Erap got only 1.6 percent growth rate. In their second year, Estrada rebounded with 5.6 percent while PNoy Aquino got only a measly growth of 0.1 percent.

If the presidents of the Fifth Republic were to compare their first nine quarters of service, Aquino would be ahead with 4.5 percent annualized rate of GDP while Ramos would be the lowest with 3.4 percent.  In AHFF, Estrada tallied highest with 6.9 percent while Cory got the lowest with 1.1 percent.  For industry, Cory Aquino got the highest rate with 4 percent while Arroyo got the lowest rate with 2.5 percent; and, for the services sector, Aquino got the highest with 5.4 percent while Ramos got the lowest with 3.3 percent.

In broad terms, an increase in GDP is one indication that the economy is doing well, according to the NSCB. “Consequently, some analysts suggest that the changes in GDP mirror how Philippine presidents and their economic managers manage our economy. Of course, other analysts would think that this may be far too simplistic given that the starting conditions and other factors, including the external environment, were not the same across the periods of these presidents,” Albert said.

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  • GustoKoHappyKa

    nah…the country weathered the financial crisis because of dollar inflow from OFW…alisin mo yan…bagsak tayo non panahon na yon..

    GMA economic sound policy is a myth…. just ask monsod..

    • GaggerAlert

      Dude, think of it this way.

      Before Arroyo, we have been always achoring on OFWs. Presidents know these. But the difference with them, is how they used that in their advantage.

      GMAs idea was to have them spending dollars here in the Philippines, instead of some other countries. Real estate, retail, holiday escapdes. In short, luho. That gave growth to our local economy through domestic spending.

      Enter BPO. Although indi pa sya ganun ka big time nun (we are chasing India), it paved the way for us to overtake them as the main BPO destination.

  • kulittwit

    Thank you Phil Daily Inquirer for documenting this.

    So it is that under 9 years of the corrupt arroyo regime, the economy grew only an average of 4.1%.

    I have no doubt, PNoy’s six years will be higher than that.

    The world bank, IMF, ADB and other reputable institutions and economists have the projections that the philippines will grow an average of 6% with PNoy. This, despite the economic crises in the US and europe.

  • rararagagag

    GMA laid out the foundation, so when Pnoy came in, he reaped the benefits.  I remember GMA wanted the Philippines to be First World by 2020.  It might be possible given the strong foundation that she already laid.

    • PinoyPower1

       Ramos laid down the foundation for erap and arroyo. cory laid down the foundation for ramos. In the first place, ramos would not have been preident without democracy and without cory.

      • GaggerAlert

        Following your logic here, so GMA laid out the foundation for Pnoy? So, it makes sense (at last at least for ‘tards) that GMA should be given some credit for whatever Pnoy is experiencing now?

        Correction lang a. Cory shouldn’t be the president in the first place. It should have been Salvador Laurel. Nag give way lang sya same as Mar Roxas and Pnoy.

        See the pattern? Because of the pinoys thirst for drama, someone more competent has to give way to someone who are totally clueless in running a country.

  • Albert Einstien

    SIPSIP naman ncsb..DAPAT patas ang report nyo po…pero naiintidihan ko po kayo..gina-gawa nyo

    natural po na lalabas na ok ang first year ni pnoy dapat….kasi MAGALING ang sinundan nya at WALANG EDSA REBELLION….at ..kasi po 7.3 at 7.9 ang GDP ni gma bago cya umalis..NILOLOKO NYO NAMAN ANG PUBLIKO NYAN HALF TRUTH E…

    at si fvr…umupo sya galing sa NEGATIVE GDP si cory.1991 .negative gdp (  – 0.58 ) at 1992 gdp 0.34

    si gma naman galing sa GDP ni erap na 2.89at GALING sa EDSA REBELLION 2001 at GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE ng 2007, 2008 at 2009…na kung saan me mga bansa pa nga na negative 20% ang gdp nila..kaya tinawag si GMA na WORLD ECONOMIC GENIUS……pero cya pa rin ang pinaka magandang average growth ng GDP …

    give CREDIT where CREDIT is DUE.!

  • Albert Einstien

    NO to RH LAW
    YES to FOI
    BIG NO to POLITICAL DYNASTY…..code E- EBAC…estrada,enrile, binay, aquino at cayetano….
    E-EBAC lang sila ULIT…Huwag na kayong E-EBAC muli….lol

  • Albert Einstien

    .NCSB : Aquino got the highest growth rates for the services sector …LOL.

    service lang umangat ke pnoy..IBIG SABIHIN umalis YUN mga ofw AT migrante 12.5 million at nagpapadala ng $ para sa FC reserves at gdp growth ……walang KINALAMAN ang gobyerno sa GROWTH pero i-CREDIT  GRAB nya…12.5 mllion na TUMATAKAS sa KAHIRAPAN at KAWALANG pag-asa sa panahon ni pnoy

    gdp growth:

    MARCOS  1973  :  9.2 GROWTH

    ARROYO  2010   :  7.9 growth ( 2nd quarter )
    ARROYO  2010   :  7.3 growth  ( 1st quarter )

    pnoy         2011     :3.7   growth
    pnoy         2012:   : 7.1 growth ( 3rd quarter )

    PURO PROPAGANDA…… OFW , MIGRANTS at BPO  lang naman pala ang ang nagbigay ng growth hindi naman galing sa pag-noynoying ng gobyerno…NAKAKABIGAT pa nga…

    • carol

      Tuwing lalabas ng bansa si pnoy millions at millions of peso ang nagagastos. pwhew binigay na lang sana sa mga mahihirap ang pera, dahil super daming kasama.

    • GaggerAlert

      Yup.. mahirap man tanggapin, but its really the OFWs that’s keeping us afloat, instead of  FDIs.

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